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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple pattern. It commonly serves as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the biggest improvement receives the prize. However, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or just the most shocking surprise.

However this year's field is fundamentally unique. The group of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference winners falling away and recent underperformers improving collectively. In an normal season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this turbulent and thrilling season, he's up against multiple other exceptional coaches.

This is how the ideal ballot ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent performance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack built solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to conjure big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the building with the level of pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current isn't a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. But he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a given following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and experience, he bet on newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and everything together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still