Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses something to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
